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I'd go with the 250 at least.
Here is what I have been using for the last 18 months - $75 at Amazon (though I got mine for $50 at local wal-mart). I expected to replace it every year but it has shown no signs of fatigue at all.
For winter cold I insulated it with silver backed bubble wrap from Lowes ($25). I looked at a lot of heater options and went with the easiest and most dependable (though not cheapest option), a side mounted Tank heated - $120 @ stockyard supply
How effective running loops of pipe in the ground of course will depend greatly on the climate, the soil type, and the amount of space you have and if you can dig up enough ground to make it work.
I did a little bit of research into geo-exchange heating/cooling a while back and discovered that in sandy, dry (sandy dry soil is not a good heat exchange media) soil with so many more cooling days per year than heating days that an acre or property would not be enough to make loops to cool even an increadibly HVAC efficient home.
Now since a fish tank is much less than a house, and the desired fish tank water temp is warmer, it might still work here in central Florida, however, if you are doing flood and drain, most of the benefit will probably quickly be lost.
I noted that he said a small system. And if it is a flood and drain media bed system, temperatures can swing pretty extreme. Now I've got a couple 300 gallon tank systems and so far during the hot spring I don't think either one has gotten over 90 F but I expect if I had say a barrel ponics system going out in the full sun here, I would already have seen water temps in it get to 95 F seeing as it's been over 100 F in the shade here a few times already this spring. The water will not move in temperature all that rapidly on it's own but if there is only 40 gallons and you are running it through a flood and drain gravel bed in the sun, well flood and drain gravel makes a very effective heat exchanger with the air and well any fish you keep in a system with only a small amount of water in the hot season here, well they better like a hot tub.
More water will help, shade will help. I'm not all the keen on greenhouses any more for Florida personally. Definitely only use a greenhouse if it can become more open like a shade or screen house in summer.
Well, I'm of the opinion that it just gets way to hot in a greenhouse here in summer so if you must have a greenhouse (even if you can completely remove the sides and open vents in the top, it will still be a bit too hot in a greenhouse here in summer and you will need to add fans and shade cloth just to get down to even with the "outdoors" so unless you are planning to install air conditioning and insulated glass for the greenhouse, you will not make it cooler in the greenhouse that outdoors in the peak of summer sunny season.
Now there may be some benefits of a greenhouse that would still make it worthwhile for a commercial operation and that is mainly in the ability to collect rain water off the roof and stop the rain water falling directly into the system so you can control water input.
In winter if you are trying to grow tilapia in North FL you will need the greenhouse. However if you are willing to grow a more cold tolerant variety of native fish and seasonally appropriate veggies, you can manage without a greenhouse and avoid the pest problems that seem to plague the greenhouse far more than out in the open.
Even in North FL you can probably manage all the cool weather crops right through the winter by just using simple season extension products like floating row covers to avoid frost burn during the coldest month or two.
To some extent this is just me liking some of the native fish better and being very partial to cool weather veggies. When I was running my system in a greenhouse It was too hot in summer and in winter it still got too cold at night and would get too hot during the day so I had far more plant problems then and I still had to heat the water to keep the tilapia alive with a flood and drain system here in central Florida and the cool weather crops didn't do very well for me in the greenhouse in winter. This past winter was my first year totally without greenhouse and my plants did absolutely fab through the winter and I haven't had any spider mite infestations since the greenhouse went away.
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